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 | Acceso al texto completo restringido a Biblioteca INIA Las Brujas. Por información adicional contacte bibliolb@inia.org.uy. |
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Registro completo
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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Fecha : |
12/11/2015 |
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Actualizado : |
09/10/2019 |
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Tipo de producción científica : |
Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales |
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Autor : |
MARCAIDA, M.; ASSENG, S.; EWERT, F.; BASSU, S.; DURAND, J.L.; LI, T.; MARTRE, P.; ADAM, M.; AGGARWAL, P.K.; ANGULO, C.; BARON, C.; BASSO, B.; BERTUZZI, P.; BIERNATH, C.; BOOGAARD, H.; BOOTE, K.J.; BOUMAN, B.; BREGAGLIO, S.; BRISSON, N.; BUIS, S.; CAMMARANO, D.; CHALLINOR, A.J.; CONFALONIERI, R.; CONIJN, J.G.; CORBEELS, M.; DERYNG, D.; DE SANCTIS, G.; DOLTRA, J.; FUMOTO, T.; GAYDON, D.; GAYLER, S.; GOLDBERG, R.; GRANT, R.F.; GRASSINI, P.; HATFIELD, J.L.; HASEGAWA, T.; HENG, L.; HOEK, S.; HOOKER, J.; HUNT, L.A.; INGWERSEN, J.; IZAURRALDE, R.C.; JONGSCHAAP, R.E.E.; JONES, J.W.; KEMANIAN, R.A.; KERSEBAUM, K.C.; KIM, S.-H.; LIZASO, J.; MÜLLER, C.; NAKAGAWA, H.; NARESH KUMAR, S.; NENDEL, C.; O'LEARY, G.J.; OLESEN, J.E.; ORIOL, P.; OSBORNE, T.M.; PALOSUO, T.; PRAVIA, V.; PRIESACK, E.; RIPOCHE, D.; ROSENZWEIG, C.; RUANE, A.C.; RUGET, F.; SAU, F.; SEMENOV, M.A.; SHCHERBAK, I.; SINGH, B.; SINGH, U.; SOO, H.K.; STEDUTO, P.; STÖCKLE, C.; STRATONOVITCH, P.; STRECK, T.; SUPIT, I.; TANG, L.; TAO, F.; TEIXEIRA, E.I.; THORBURN, P.; TIMLIN, D.; TRAVASSO, M.; RÖTTER, R.P.; WAHA, K.; WALLACH, D.; WHITE, J.W.; WILKENS, P.; WILLIAMS, J.R.; WOLF, J.; YIN, X.; YOSHIDA, H.; ZHANG, Z.; ZHU, Y. |
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Afiliación : |
MARIA VIRGINIA PRAVIA NIN, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay. |
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Título : |
A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. |
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Fecha de publicación : |
2015 |
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Fuente / Imprenta : |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015, v.214-215, p. 483-493. |
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ISSN : |
0168-1923 |
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DOI : |
10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013 |
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Idioma : |
Inglés |
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Notas : |
Article history: Received 6 March 2015 / Received in revised form 29 July 2015 / Accepted 20 September 2015 / Available online 1 October 2015. |
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Contenido : |
ABSTRACT.
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2]increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulatingclimate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2].
© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. MenosABSTRACT.
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in... Presentar Todo |
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Palabras claves : |
Climate change; CROP MODEL; Emulator; MAIZE; Meta-model; MODELIZACIÓN DE LOS CULTIVOS; RICE; Statistical model; WHEAT; Yield. |
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Thesagro : |
ARROZ; CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO; MAÍZ; MODELOS ESTADISTICOS; TRIGO. |
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Asunto categoría : |
A50 Investigación agraria |
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Marc : |
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022 $a0168-1923
024 7 $a10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013$2DOI
100 1 $aMARCAIDA, M.
245 $aA statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration.
260 $c2015
500 $aArticle history: Received 6 March 2015 / Received in revised form 29 July 2015 / Accepted 20 September 2015 / Available online 1 October 2015.
520 $aABSTRACT. Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenariosof temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Suchdatasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due totheir structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and tointerpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols.Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulateensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models isthat they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2concentration levels, and canthus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulatedby 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to thesedatasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature.Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effectof a temperature increase of +2◦C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2]increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulatingclimate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2]. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
650 $aARROZ
650 $aCAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
650 $aMAÍZ
650 $aMODELOS ESTADISTICOS
650 $aTRIGO
653 $aClimate change
653 $aCROP MODEL
653 $aEmulator
653 $aMAIZE
653 $aMeta-model
653 $aMODELIZACIÓN DE LOS CULTIVOS
653 $aRICE
653 $aStatistical model
653 $aWHEAT
653 $aYield
700 1 $aASSENG, S.
700 1 $aEWERT, F.
700 1 $aBASSU, S.
700 1 $aDURAND, J.L.
700 1 $aLI, T.
700 1 $aMARTRE, P.
700 1 $aADAM, M.
700 1 $aAGGARWAL, P.K.
700 1 $aANGULO, C.
700 1 $aBARON, C.
700 1 $aBASSO, B.
700 1 $aBERTUZZI, P.
700 1 $aBIERNATH, C.
700 1 $aBOOGAARD, H.
700 1 $aBOOTE, K.J.
700 1 $aBOUMAN, B.
700 1 $aBREGAGLIO, S.
700 1 $aBRISSON, N.
700 1 $aBUIS, S.
700 1 $aCAMMARANO, D.
700 1 $aCHALLINOR, A.J.
700 1 $aCONFALONIERI, R.
700 1 $aCONIJN, J.G.
700 1 $aCORBEELS, M.
700 1 $aDERYNG, D.
700 1 $aDE SANCTIS, G.
700 1 $aDOLTRA, J.
700 1 $aFUMOTO, T.
700 1 $aGAYDON, D.
700 1 $aGAYLER, S.
700 1 $aGOLDBERG, R.
700 1 $aGRANT, R.F.
700 1 $aGRASSINI, P.
700 1 $aHATFIELD, J.L.
700 1 $aHASEGAWA, T.
700 1 $aHENG, L.
700 1 $aHOEK, S.
700 1 $aHOOKER, J.
700 1 $aHUNT, L.A.
700 1 $aINGWERSEN, J.
700 1 $aIZAURRALDE, R.C.
700 1 $aJONGSCHAAP, R.E.E.
700 1 $aJONES, J.W.
700 1 $aKEMANIAN, R.A.
700 1 $aKERSEBAUM, K.C.
700 1 $aKIM, S.-H.
700 1 $aLIZASO, J.
700 1 $aMÜLLER, C.
700 1 $aNAKAGAWA, H.
700 1 $aNARESH KUMAR, S.
700 1 $aNENDEL, C.
700 1 $aO'LEARY, G.J.
700 1 $aOLESEN, J.E.
700 1 $aORIOL, P.
700 1 $aOSBORNE, T.M.
700 1 $aPALOSUO, T.
700 1 $aPRAVIA, V.
700 1 $aPRIESACK, E.
700 1 $aRIPOCHE, D.
700 1 $aROSENZWEIG, C.
700 1 $aRUANE, A.C.
700 1 $aRUGET, F.
700 1 $aSAU, F.
700 1 $aSEMENOV, M.A.
700 1 $aSHCHERBAK, I.
700 1 $aSINGH, B.
700 1 $aSINGH, U.
700 1 $aSOO, H.K.
700 1 $aSTEDUTO, P.
700 1 $aSTÖCKLE, C.
700 1 $aSTRATONOVITCH, P.
700 1 $aSTRECK, T.
700 1 $aSUPIT, I.
700 1 $aTANG, L.
700 1 $aTAO, F.
700 1 $aTEIXEIRA, E.I.
700 1 $aTHORBURN, P.
700 1 $aTIMLIN, D.
700 1 $aTRAVASSO, M.
700 1 $aRÖTTER, R.P.
700 1 $aWAHA, K.
700 1 $aWALLACH, D.
700 1 $aWHITE, J.W.
700 1 $aWILKENS, P.
700 1 $aWILLIAMS, J.R.
700 1 $aWOLF, J.
700 1 $aYIN, X.
700 1 $aYOSHIDA, H.
700 1 $aZHANG, Z.
700 1 $aZHU, Y.
773 $tAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015$gv.214-215, p. 483-493.
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INIA Las Brujas (LB) |
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| Registros recuperados : 18 | |
| 3. |  | CARRACELAS, G.; GUILPART, N.; GRASSINI, P.; CASSMAN, K. Determinación del potencial y de la brecha de rendimiento en los sistemas de arroz en Uruguay. ln: JORNADA ANUAL ARROZ, 2016, INIA TREINTA Y TRES, TREINTA Y TRES, UY. Arroz: resultados experimentales 2015-2016. Treinta y Tres, (Uruguay): INIA, 2016. Cap. 2, p. 5-8. (INIA, Serie Actividades de Difusión; 765) GYGA: Globlal Yield Gap Atlas.| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| 4. | | CARRACELAS, G.; GUILPART, N.; GRASSINI, P.; CASSMAN, K.G. Determinación del potencial y brecha de rendimiento en los sistemas de arroz en Uruguay. [Presentación oral]. In: Presentación resultados experimentales de arroz, 16 Agosto, Artigas; 17 Agosto, Tacuarembó (UY). INIA, University of Nebraska Lincoln, Global Yield Gap Atlas, 2016.| Tipo: Presentaciones Orales |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó. |
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| 8. | | CARRACELAS, G.; GUILPART, N.; GRASSINI, P.; ZORRILLA DE SAN MARTÍN, G.; CASSMAN, K.G. Análisis de potencial y brecha de rendimiento en los sistemas de arroz irrigado en Uruguay y otros países. ln: Congresso Brasileiro de Arroz Irrigado, 11., 13-16 agosto, Camboriú, Brasil, 2019. 17 p.| Tipo: Presentaciones Orales |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó. |
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| 10. | | CARRACELAS, G.; GUILPART, N.; GRASSINI, P.; ZORRILLA DE SAN MARTÍN, G.; CASSMAN, K. Yield gap analysis of irrigated rice in Uruguay and comparison with other rice producing countries. [Resumen]. ln: Congresso Brasileiro de Arroz Irrigado, 11., 13-16 agosto, Camboriú, Brasil, 2019. 4 p.| Tipo: Trabajos en Congresos/Conferencias |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó. |
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| 11. | | CARRACELAS, G.; GRASSINI, P.; GUILPART, N.; CASSMAN, K.; ZORRILLA DE SAN MARTÍN, G. Yield gap analysis and prognosis of yield increase of irrigated rice in Uruguay. [Abstract]. In: Rice Technical Working Group, 37, 2018, Proceedings. Long Beach, California (USA): Rice Technical Working Group, 2018. p. 131-132.| Tipo: Abstracts/Resúmenes |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| 12. | | CARRACELAS, G.; GUILPART, N.; GRASSINI, P.; CASSMAN, K.G.; ZORRILLA DE SAN MARTÍN, G. Yield gaps and yield increase of irrigated rice in Uruguay. [Presentación oral]. In: Rice Technical Working Group, 37, 2018, Proceedings. Long Beach, California (USA): Rice Technical Working Group, 2018.| Tipo: Presentaciones Orales |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó. |
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| 13. | | CARRACELAS, G.; GUILPART, N.; CASSMAN, K.; GRASSINI, P.; ZORRILLA DE SAN MARTÍN, G. Yield potential and Yield gaps of irrigated rice in Uruguay and other rice producing countries. In: International Temperate Rice Conference, 6-9 de marzo, Griffith, NSW, Australia, 2017. 7 p.| Tipo: Trabajos en Congresos/Conferencias |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| 14. | | CARRACELAS, G.; GUILPART, N.; GRASSINI, P.; CASSMAN, K.G.; ZORRILLA DE SAN MARTÍN, G. Yield potential and yield gaps of irrigated rice in Uruguay and other rice producing countries. [Presentación oral]. In: International Temperate Rice Conference, 6-9 de marzo, Griffith, NSW, Australia, 2017.| Tipo: Presentaciones Orales |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| 15. | | YUAN, S.; LINQUIST, B.; WILSON, L.; CASSMAN, K.; STUART, A.; PEDE, V.; MIRO, B.; SAITO, K.; AGUSTIANI, N.; ARISTYA, V.; KRISNADI, L.; ZANON, A.; HEINEMANN, A.; CARRACELAS, G.; SUBASH, N.; BRAHMANAND, P.; LI, T.; PENG, S.; GRASSINI, P. A roadmap towards sustainable intensification for a larger global rice bowl Research Square, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-401904/v1 Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Dr. Russell Ford (former Head of Agronomic R&D at Sunrice) for providing data for rice in Australia and Dr. P.A.J. van Oort for performing the simulations of yield potential for African countries....| Tipo: Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales | Circulación / Nivel : Internacional - -- |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Tacuarembó. |
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| 16. | | YUAN, S.; LINQUIST, B. A.; WILSON, L. T.; CASSMAN, K. G.; STUART, A. M.; PEDE, V.; SAITO, K.; AGUSTIANI, N.; ARISTYA, V. E.; KRISNADI, L. Y.; ZANON, A.J.; HEINEMANN, A. B.; CARRACELAS, G.; SUBASH, N.; BRAGMANAND, P. S.; LI, T.; PENG, S.; GRASSINI, P. Sustainable intensification for a larger global rice bowl. Nature Communications, December 2021, Article number 7163. OPEN ACCESS. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27424-z 11 p. Article history: Received: 7 April 2021; Accepted: 17 November 2021; Published online 09 December 2021.
Correspondence author: pgrassini2@unl.edu; speng@mail.hzau.edu.cn| Tipo: Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales | Circulación / Nivel : Internacional - -- |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| 17. | | BASSU, S.; BRISSON, N.; DURAND, J.L.; BOOTE, K.; LIZASO, J.; JONES, J.W.; ROSENZWEIG, C.; RUANE, A.C.; ADAM, M.; BARON, C.; BASSO, B.; BIERNATH, C.; BOOGAARD, H.; CONIJN, S.; CORBEELS, M.L; DERYNG, D.; SANTIS, G. DE; GAYLER, S.; GRASSINI, P.; HATFIELD, J.; HOEK, S.; IZAURRALDE, C.; JONGSCHAAP, R.; KEMANIAN, A.R.; KERSEBAUM, C.KIM, S-H.; KUMAR, N.; MAKOWSKI, D.; MÜLLER, C.; NENDEL, C.; PRIESACK, E.; PRAVIA, V.; SAU, F.; SHCHERBAK, I.; TAO, F.; TEXEIRA, E.; TIMLIN, D.; WAHA, K. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global Change Biology, 2014, v.20(7), p. 2301-2320. Article history: Received 7 June 2013 and accepted 2 December 2013, published 2014.| Tipo: Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales | Circulación / Nivel : A - 1 |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| 18. | | MARCAIDA, M.; ASSENG, S.; EWERT, F.; BASSU, S.; DURAND, J.L.; LI, T.; MARTRE, P.; ADAM, M.; AGGARWAL, P.K.; ANGULO, C.; BARON, C.; BASSO, B.; BERTUZZI, P.; BIERNATH, C.; BOOGAARD, H.; BOOTE, K.J.; BOUMAN, B.; BREGAGLIO, S.; BRISSON, N.; BUIS, S.; CAMMARANO, D.; CHALLINOR, A.J.; CONFALONIERI, R.; CONIJN, J.G.; CORBEELS, M.; DERYNG, D.; DE SANCTIS, G.; DOLTRA, J.; FUMOTO, T.; GAYDON, D.; GAYLER, S.; GOLDBERG, R.; GRANT, R.F.; GRASSINI, P.; HATFIELD, J.L.; HASEGAWA, T.; HENG, L.; HOEK, S.; HOOKER, J.; HUNT, L.A.; INGWERSEN, J.; IZAURRALDE, R.C.; JONGSCHAAP, R.E.E.; JONES, J.W.; KEMANIAN, R.A.; KERSEBAUM, K.C.; KIM, S.-H.; LIZASO, J.; MÜLLER, C.; NAKAGAWA, H.; NARESH KUMAR, S.; NENDEL, C.; O'LEARY, G.J.; OLESEN, J.E.; ORIOL, P.; OSBORNE, T.M.; PALOSUO, T.; PRAVIA, V.; PRIESACK, E.; RIPOCHE, D.; ROSENZWEIG, C.; RUANE, A.C.; RUGET, F.; SAU, F.; SEMENOV, M.A.; SHCHERBAK, I.; SINGH, B.; SINGH, U.; SOO, H.K.; STEDUTO, P.; STÖCKLE, C.; STRATONOVITCH, P.; STRECK, T.; SUPIT, I.; TANG, L.; TAO, F.; TEIXEIRA, E.I.; THORBURN, P.; TIMLIN, D.; TRAVASSO, M.; RÖTTER, R.P.; WAHA, K.; WALLACH, D.; WHITE, J.W.; WILKENS, P.; WILLIAMS, J.R.; WOLF, J.; YIN, X.; YOSHIDA, H.; ZHANG, Z.; ZHU, Y. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015, v.214-215, p. 483-493. Article history: Received 6 March 2015 / Received in revised form 29 July 2015 / Accepted 20 September 2015 / Available online 1 October 2015.| Tipo: Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales | Circulación / Nivel : Internacional - -- |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Las Brujas; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| Registros recuperados : 18 | |
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